When Could You Register For The Ww2 Draft

Beloved friend

I think that three weeks into this special armed forces operation we can have a few moments to pause and recollect nigh where we are and where nosotros get from here.

My first ascertainment is this: in that location are, roughly, ii main groups of people out there, those who "get it" and those who don't. In practical terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to reach folks who are "unreachable" (being polite here).

For the past 3 weeks, I have tried to debunk the United states of america PSYOP narrative, alongside folks like Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Time to come and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama. My health does not allow me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I desire to avoid being forced into rest by my body.

Withal I still become a daily deluge of questions from those who did not "get it" and, bluntly, I am exhausted trying to debunk the same stuff over and over and over over again.

So, ane terminal time:

In purely military terms, the picture we see now is simple: the Ukie military every bit a strategic musical instrument basically died in the first 24 hours. And so the Russians used a small force to bypass and block main cities. With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not try to enter them. Why? For 3 crucial reasons:

they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is about ane:1 when it should really exist iii-five:1 in favor of the attacker)
they wanted to impale as few Ukrainians equally possible and
they did non desire to flatten cities only to take to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are mostly in their permanent deployment bases and they are ready for a war against the U.s.a.+NATO.

And if you lot are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Black Sea Fleet did non use its aristocracy Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind you lot that all the huge damage done to the NATO base of operations in western Ukraine was simply a unmarried salvo from ane unmarried small vessel (what the Russian call a "small missile ship"), probably with one (land or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed. If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not employ the Blackness Body of water Fleet to the max? Instead, she is keeping it near Odessa, ready to strike if/when needed, non only at the Ukraine, but at NATO too (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation as a "special military operation" and not as a "state of war" or a "combined arms functioning".

Once more, you either "get it" or you lot don't. Information technology'southward that simple, really.

And then here is roughly were we are today (yesterday's Readovka map):

Then we are likely to terminate upwards with something looking similar this:

And I don't see the betoken of reporting how nosotros will go from the superlative map to the project higher up blow past blow, town by town.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the projection above is not "how do nosotros get in that location?" merely "where do we become from at that place once we get in?". Right now this conclusion time is still probably a couple of weeks into the hereafter.

Any may be the instance, I have decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from at present on, wait analyses merely every 2nd day (unless big events happen).

Next, I don't meet whatsoever other way to finish the US+UK+PL to intervene other than past means of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "just" upon any target in the Ukraine, simply also strikes on any NATO facility is central to the electric current war preparations past NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am incorrect and that the US+UK+PL are not as terminally blinded past their hatred of Russia equally to risk an actual full scale war in Europe.

But I have to acknowledge that this hope is modest and getting smaller by the day.

It is therefore quite possible, perhaps even likely, that in the not too distant futurity nosotros will see US and Russian armed forces personnel meeting in combat. If that happens, non only will the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply up, but information technology would place me personally in an impossible situation: I would be a guest of the USA ("Dark-green Card" – I only have a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would exist at war with the USA.

I have therefore taken the following decision: if in that location is a war in Europe, I will go along to cover it until 1) Russian and United states of america soldiers run into in battle and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere. If nosotros reach either of these points, then this volition non only prove that the Saker blog failed in its main mission (avoid state of war) but it will as well place me personally in an impossible situation.

If either of the two events happen, I volition then "freeze" the blog until the war stops.

I don't like to have to have the two decisions above, in fact I very much regret them both, but things are speedily getting out of hand and I need to set, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: remember the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the US+Israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms. Not only that, simply this war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was before. Withal information technology began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to become so far overboard and basically hammer Lebanese republic with everything they had for over a month.

I see a parallel here.

No, I do not think that the Russian military functioning has run across whatsoever major bug, generally what happened in these iii weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economic terms, there is this big fence now about the Russian gold and strange currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist. I volition let much smarter people than I deal with that.

I too think that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the Westward would introduce sooner or later, but I retrieve that the Kremlin was taken past surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions. How much of a trouble is that? Well, I generally favor western sanctions against Russia because they force Russian federation to built a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russia from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Here, again, time will tell and much smarter people and then I tin can offer their insights into this.

Nevertheless, I recollect that almost people in Russia are stunned by what is a full-scale "hate state of war" on Russia which nosotros can call the "Abolish Russian federation war". In essence, the Westward did throw everything information technology had at Russia short of a overt military aggression and knowing the geniuses in ability in the Usa+UK+PL I would not even put information technology past them to endeavour to fight Russia direct.

So what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Cancel Russia" world war.

How could I blame folks in Russian federation for not beingness able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the heart of Europe and lived all my life in the West could not imagine these ruling classes to be and so admittedly out of touch with reality?

Again, to be articulate, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the Due west near anything, but they indeed assumed that the ruling class of the USA would non decide to blow up the planet economically and even perhaps militarily considering it would hurt the interests of the U.s.a. ruling form. So if anybody is "dumbshit stupid" it is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who rule over the U.s.a. (and, therefore, over the Eu too).

There is also this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Fall". Let's run across by year's stop who was really dumbshit stupid and who will have prevailed.

Now I think that information technology is time for all of the states, myself included, to permit get of the thought "no, they tin't perhaps by THAT delusional" and assume that yes, they are really THAT delusional.

I as well run into another parallel: remember how the United states of america forced Japan into a war and then wrapped itself in the pall of an innocent victim and declared "this day shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA just pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be but as immense.

But there is a big difference here: Japan could non meaningfully strike at the continental U.s.a.. Russian federation very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Hither I will only repeat the quote past Putin which I mentioned the 24-hour interval before the Russian special military machine operation: " if a fight is inevitable you lot should strike showtime ". In apparently English this means that if the Russian come up to the conclusion that the US is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of performance (claim to be simply defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale basis invasion) then you can be sure that Russian federation will strike EU airports, seaports or whatever other facility used to prepare an set on on Russia.

In fact, if the The states/NATO do decide to attack Russian federation, this will be the final, nuclear, cease for the western civilization as such. After 1000 years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could exist a fitting, just, end" in the "chicken coming home to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now information technology is in the hands of the Usa ruling elites.

Frankly, there is very little Andrei, Bernhard of myself can do most that. I sure have said all I have to say on this topic and, again, some see it, others don't – and there is nothing more I tin can do to affect this ratio.

The hereafter of our planet at present depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of US ruling grade (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Simply time will tell. All nosotros tin can practise now is pray and place our trust and lives into God's hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to yous all, my friends and readers. I still promise for the best, but I take to prepare for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of you.

Kind regards

Andrei

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts