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The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced uncertainty into major aspects of national and global society, including for schools. For example, there is uncertainty near how school closures last spring impacted student achievement, likewise every bit how the rapid conversion of well-nigh instruction to an online platform this academic year will go on to affect achievement. Without data on how the virus impacts pupil learning, making informed decisions near whether and when to render to in-person instruction remains hard. Even now, pedagogy leaders must grapple with seemingly impossible choices that remainder wellness risks associated with in-person learning against the educational needs of children, which may exist better served when kids are in their physical schools.

Amidst all this uncertainty, in that location is growing consensus that schoolhouse closures in spring 2020 likely had negative furnishings on educatee learning. For example, in an earlier mail service for this weblog, we presented our research forecasting the possible impact of school closures on achievement. Based on historical learning trends and prior research on how out-of-school-time affects learning, we estimated that students would potentially begin fall 2020 with roughly 70% of the learning gains in reading relative to a typical school year. In mathematics, students were predicted to evidence even smaller learning gains from the previous year, returning with less than 50% of typical gains. While these and other similar forecasts presented a grim portrait of the challenges facing students and educators this fall, they were nonetheless projections. The question remained: What would learning trends in actual data from the 2020-21 school year actually await similar?

With fall 2020 data now in manus, we can move beyond forecasting and begin to describe what did happen. While the closures terminal jump left most schools without cess data from that fourth dimension, thousands of schools began testing this fall, making information technology possible to compare learning gains in a typical, pre-COVID-19 twelvemonth to those aforementioned gains during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using information from nearly iv.4 million students in grades iii-8 who took MAP^® Growth™ reading and math assessments in fall 2020, we examined two primary enquiry questions:

1. How did students perform in fall 2020 relative to a typical school year (specifically, autumn 2019)?
2. Have students made learning gains since schools physically closed in March 2020?

To answer these questions, nosotros compared students' academic accomplishment and growth during the COVID-19 pandemic to the accomplishment and growth patterns observed in 2019. We report student achievement as a percentile rank, which is a normative measure of a student'south achievement in a given grade/subject relative to the MAP Growth national norms (reflecting pre-COVID-19 achievement levels).

To make sure the students who took the tests before and after COVID-19 school closures were demographically similar, all analyses were limited to a sample of 8,000 schools that tested students in both autumn 2019 and fall 2020. Compared to all public schools in the nation, schools in the sample had slightly larger total enrollment, a lower percentage of low-income students, and a higher percentage of white students. Since our sample includes both in-person and remote testers in autumn 2020, we conducted an initial comparability report of remote and in-person testing in fall 2020. We found consistent psychometric characteristics and trends in exam scores for remote and in-person tests for students in grades 3-eight, but caution that remote testing conditions may be qualitatively different for K-two students. For more details on the sample and methodology, please see the technical report accompanying this report.

In some cases, our results tell a more than optimistic story than what we feared. In others, the results are as securely concerning as we expected based on our projections.

Question 1: How did students perform in fall 2020 relative to a typical school twelvemonth?

When comparing students' median percentile rank for fall 2020 to those for fall 2019, there is practiced news to share: Students in grades 3-8 performed similarly in reading to aforementioned-grade students in fall 2019. While the reason for the stability of these accomplishment results cannot be easily pinned down, possible explanations are that students read more on their own, and parents are better equipped to back up learning in reading compared to other subjects that require more formal education.

The news in math, however, is more worrying. The figure below shows the median percentile rank in math by grade level in fall 2019 and fall 2020. Equally the figure indicates, the math achievement of students in 2020 was most 5 to 10 percentile points lower compared to same-form students the prior yr.

Effigy 1: MAP Growth Percentiles in Math past Class Level in Autumn 2019 and Autumn 2020

Source: Author calculations with MAP Growth data.
Notes: Each bar represents the median percentile rank in a given grade/term.

Question ii: Have students made learning gains since schools physically closed, and how do these gains compare to gains in a more typical yr?

To answer this question, we examined learning gains/losses between winter 2020 (January through early March) and fall 2020 relative to those same gains in a pre-COVID-19 period (betwixt wintertime 2019 and fall 2019). We did not examine spring-to-fall changes because so few students tested in spring 2020 (afterwards the pandemic began). In almost all grades, the majority of students made some learning gains in both reading and math since the COVID-19 pandemic started, though gains were smaller in math in 2020 relative to the gains students in the same grades made in the winter 2019-fall 2019 period.

Effigy two shows the distribution of change in reading scores by grade for the wintertime 2020 to fall 2020 flow (lite blue) every bit compared to aforementioned-grade students in the pre-pandemic span of winter 2019 to fall 2019 (dark bluish). The 2019 and 2020 distributions largely overlapped, suggesting like amounts of within-student change from i grade to the next.

Figure 2: Distribution of Within-student Alter from Winter 2019-Fall 2019 vs Wintertime 2020-Fall 2020 in Reading

Source: Author calculations with MAP Growth data.
Notes: The dashed line represents zero growth (e.one thousand., winter and fall examination scores were equivalent). A positive value indicates that a educatee scored higher in the autumn than their prior winter score; a negative value indicates a student scored lower in the fall than their prior winter score.

Meanwhile, Figure 3 shows the distribution of alter for students in different form levels for the wintertime 2020 to fall 2020 period in math. In dissimilarity to reading, these results bear witness a downward shift: A smaller proportion of students demonstrated positive math growth in the 2020 menstruum than in the 2019 menstruation for all grades. For example, 79% of students switching from 3^rd to 4^th grade fabricated academic gains between wintertime 2019 and fall 2019, relative to 57% of students in the aforementioned grade range in 2020.

Effigy 3: Distribution of Within-student Alter from Wintertime 2019-Fall 2019 vs. Winter 2020-Fall 2020 in Math

Source: Author calculations with MAP Growth data.
Notes: The dashed line represents zero growth (eastward.1000., winter and fall test scores were equivalent). A positive value indicates that a educatee scored college in the fall than their prior winter score; a negative value indicates a educatee scored lower in the autumn than their prior wintertime score.

Information technology was widely speculated that the COVID-xix pandemic would lead to very unequal opportunities for learning depending on whether students had access to technology and parental support during the schoolhouse closures, which would result in greater heterogeneity in terms of learning gains/losses in 2020. Notably, however, nosotros do not see evidence that within-student change is more spread out this year relative to the pre-pandemic 2019 distribution.

The long-term effects of COVID-19 are all the same unknown

In some ways, our findings show an optimistic motion-picture show: In reading, on average, the achievement percentiles of students in fall 2020 were similar to those of aforementioned-grade students in fall 2019, and in virtually all grades, most students made some learning gains since the COVID-19 pandemic started. In math, however, the results tell a less rosy story: Student accomplishment was lower than the pre-COVID-19 performance by same-grade students in fall 2019, and students showed lower growth in math across grades 3 to 8 relative to peers in the previous, more typical yr. Schools will need clear local data to understand if these national trends are reflective of their students. Additional resources and supports should be deployed in math specifically to go students back on track.

In this study, we express our analyses to a consequent set of schools between fall 2019 and fall 2020. Nevertheless, approximately one in four students who tested within these schools in fall 2019 are no longer in our sample in fall 2020. This is a sizeable increase from the xv% attrition from fall 2018 to fall 2019. One possible explanation is that some students lacked reliable technology. A second is that they disengaged from school due to economic, health, or other factors. More coordinated efforts are required to establish communication with students who are non attending school or disengaging from instruction to go them back on track, especially our virtually vulnerable students.

Finally, we are only scratching the surface in quantifying the short-term and long-term bookish and non-academic impacts of COVID-nineteen. While more students are back in schools at present and educators have more feel with remote instruction than when the pandemic forced schools to close in leap 2020, the collective shock we are experiencing is ongoing. Nosotros will continue to examine students' academic progress throughout the 2020-21 school year to understand how recovery and growth unfold amidst an ongoing pandemic.

Thankfully, we know much more well-nigh the affect the pandemic has had on pupil learning than we did even a few months ago. However, that cognition makes clear that in that location is work to be done to assist many students go back on track in math, and that the long-term ramifications of COVID-19 for educatee learning—specially amongst underserved communities—remain unknown.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/12/03/how-is-covid-19-affecting-student-learning/

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